Is the United States heading into a recession? For some business leaders, the answer is a definitive yes.
According to a second-quarter economic outlook survey conducted May 5-27 by the AICPA and CIMA, one in five business executives believe the country has already entered a recession. Meanwhile, 34% of respondents said they expect a recession by the end of 2025, and another 7% expect one sometime in 2026.
Notably, though, a sizable portion of respondents (39%) said they were simply “not sure” when asked about their expectations for the possibility of a recession.
For those who are expecting a recession, 18% expect it to be severe, while 57% think it will be moderate.
In a news release, AICPA officials said the survey shows that executives’ optimism after the November presidential election has “ebbed dramatically in the past two quarters.” At the end of 2024, for instance, 67% of respondents in the same survey reported feeling optimistic about the U.S. economy. Fast forward to today, and that figure drops to 27%.
“We’re seeing a lot of revised expectations: delayed hiring and investment, pared-back expansion plans, lowered key performance indicators,” said Tom Hood, executive vice president of business engagement and growth at the AICPA and CIMA, in the release. “The data shows a clear pivot from optimism to caution. Businesses are bracing for volatility, and the uncertainty around tariffs is amplifying that shift.”
More than half of the respondents said they’re experiencing some level of uncertainty due to tariffs. According to the survey, 40% characterized their uncertainty as moderate, and another 27% described it as significant. Still, 23% said they’ve only experienced minor uncertainty over tariffs, and 10% said tariffs have been “insignificant.”
About 35% of respondents said they’re increasing their prices for customers as a result of tariffs.
The AICPA’s research appears to jibe with other recent surveys of finance leaders. In a survey released Thursday by the Center for Audit Quality, for instance, 60% of audit partners cited a recession as the largest economic risk for the businesses they work with. Sixty-three percent pointed to “trade issues” broadly as the largest economic risk.
The survey was based on 328 responses from CPAs and chartered global management accountants who hold leadership positions at their organizations. More than half of the respondents (51%) were CFOs, and 19% were controllers or comptrollers.
