By the end of 2025, the total value of announced M&A transactions by U.S. companies surpassed 2024 results in each of the four quarters, fueling expectations for a robust 2026.
Among 300 M&A dealmakers (150 corporate and 150 private equity) surveyed by KPMG, two-thirds (66%) said they expect their pipeline volume to increase in 2026 from 2025 levels. A mere 5% forecasted a lower volume.
Those polled — all from companies with at least $1 billion in revenue or PE funds valued at $500 million-plus — expressed similar opinions about the quality of deal opportunities in 2026, with 74% predicting higher quality and only 4% looking at lower quality.
Among reasons for bolder M&A intentions, 66% of the respondents cited “expanding into new markets or geographies,” followed by 58% pointing to “growing our core business.”
Three-quarters of the survey participants (74%) said they were currently considering the acquisition of a full business, while 49% were looking at a joint venture or strategic partnership, 45% at carve-out acquisitions and 36% at moving from a minority to majority ownership stake.
The primary motivations to pursue joint ventures were to access new capabilities and technology, share risks and enable agility and strategic flexibility.
Asked to identify the U.S. government actions that were most favorable for dealmaking, 29% selected “incentives for domestic investment,” 25% pointed to “interest rate and monetary policy,” and 15% said “AI and emerging tech regulation.”
The least favorable conditions were political or policy uncertainty (25%), the federal government shutdown (22%), tariffs (19%) and antitrust and regulator enforcement (16%).
With regard to the effects of the 43-day government shutdown that began Oct. 1, 33% of the survey-takers said it “increased the level of diligence required for deals involving government-regulated industries or contractors.”
Almost as many said they re-evaluated the financial forecasts or risk profile of a target; postponed or delayed the timing of a planned transaction; and took on added costs. About a third also said the shutdown had no significant impact on their M&A plans, while only 4% said the shutdown contributed to the cancellation of a deal process.
Unsurprisingly, technology advancements are playing an increasing role in the M&A market. More than half (57%) of those polled reported that the use of generative AI has resulted in efficiency gains of 11% to 25% in the process of target screening and prioritization.
About half have realized 11-25% efficiency gains in due diligence, as well as in competitive intelligence/market analysis.
