A new report from Ireland’s fiscal watchdog projects continued surpluses for the island nation but raises warnings about the country’s dependence on “volatile” corporate taxes paid by multinational firms, many of whom are American companies, amid rising trade tensions.
In a report released Tuesday by the independent Irish Fiscal Advisory Council, officials noted that without revenue from corporate taxes, Ireland would face a “substantial debt” to the tune of €5 billion in 2025.
“Phenomenal levels of excess corporation tax are keeping Ireland in surplus,” the council said in the report. “Without these revenues, there would be a substantial deficit, despite a strong economy. These receipts may well increase, but they remain high risk. Just three companies account for most of the excess corporation tax.”
The report said that about 75% of Ireland’s corporate tax revenue depends on U.S. companies. Both nations have hailed their tight business connections as mutually beneficial. A March report from the American Chamber of Commerce Ireland, for instance, described Ireland as the “sixth largest investor in the U.S.” owing to the steady stream of business between the two countries.
Ireland is home to the European headquarters of many U.S. firms, including tech giants like Meta, Apple and Google. Ireland’s relatively lower corporate tax rate has also led some American companies to move their official legal headquarters there, such as medical device giant Medtronic and consulting firm Accenture.
Though many of the businesses with a presence in Ireland are exempt from the Trump administration’s tariff regime for now, that could change, the council’s report noted. Pharmaceutical products, for instance, have been exempted from U.S. tariffs, but the sector “remains under active review.”
Looking ahead, the sectors that have driven Ireland’s recent growth now face critical questions about whether to continue investing in the country. “Services sectors, such as the tech sector, may not be directly impacted by tariffs. However, if the trade dispute escalates and both sides respond with new tariffs, the services sector could also be directly impacted.”
Council researchers said nearly €40 billion worth of pharmaceutical goods were exported from Ireland to the U.S. in the first three months of 2025. That’s almost as much as all exports in 2024, according to the report.
For now, the report nonetheless projects higher-than-expected corporate tax revenue for Ireland. Though the Irish government has projected about €28 billion in corporate tax revenue, the council said those forecasts are “simply not credible” and pointed to a range of reasons why the figure might end up being much higher. The jump in pharmaceutical exports was one of them.
“Under current policies, we expect corporation tax revenues to continue rising, at least in the short term,” the council stated.
