At the close of 2025, finance leaders are expecting modest gains in both revenue and profit going into the new year.
That’s among the findings from a fourth-quarter outlook survey conducted Nov. 3-25 by the AICPA and CIMA. On average, respondents said they expect revenue to grow about 2% over the next 12 months, up from expectations of 1.5% in the third-quarter survey. Profits, meanwhile, are projected to grow by about 0.8%, according to the survey, up from just 0.1% in last quarter’s survey.
Like other recent surveys of financial leaders, the AICPA-CIMA survey also found respondents are less optimistic about the U.S. economy as a whole, even though they’re a bit more bullish on their own organizations’ prospects. To wit, 28% of respondents said they feel optimistic about the American economy, down from 34% in the third quarter, while 41% expressed optimism in their own organizations’ future. The survey also found that 48% of respondents felt optimistic about expansion plans over the next 12 months.
What’s driving the overall dip in optimism? Respondents cited “domestic economic conditions” broadly as their top challenge, followed by inflation. Concerns about “domestic political leadership” came in third place, according to the survey. That’s the highest ranking for that category since the second quarter of 2021, AICPA and CIMA said.
Notably, though, the survey detected minimal impact from the longest federal government shutdown in history: Three in four respondents said the pause had “no more than a minor impact on operations,” the organizations said in a news release.
“Despite a small decrease in optimism in the economy at large, we’re seeing a mixed picture below that topline figure that underscores some of the volatility companies are experiencing,” said Tom Hood, executive vice president of business engagement and growth with the AICPA and CIMA, in the release. “The good news is business executives are feeling better about their own companies’ expected performance, and that’s reflected in small improvements in profit and revenue projections.”
AICPA and CIMA also recorded a decline in fears around tariffs, with 49% of respondents citing moderate to significant uncertainty in business planning due to the levies. That’s the same level as it was in the first quarter of the year, and down from 58% in the prior quarter.
Twenty-eight percent of respondents said the primary impact of tariffs was increased consumer prices that could “adversely” affect their businesses. That’s down from 30% in the third quarter and from 35% in the second.
Fears about an economic recession also abated slightly in the final quarter of the year, with 52% of respondents saying that either the U.S. has already entered one, will enter one by year’s end or will enter one sometime in 2026. That figure is down from 54% in the third quarter.
The AICPA-CIMA survey included 241 responses from CPAs and other chartered global management accountant designation holders in leadership positions, including CFOs and controllers.
