For some finance leaders, the first quarter of 2026 proved to be something of a reset in terms of economic outlook, though it’s anyone’s guess what the rest of the year will look like.
In a February survey administered by the American Institute of CPAs and the Chartered Institute of Management Accountants, recession expectations dropped “heavily,” from 52% in the fourth quarter of 2025 to 36% in Q1 2026.
Perhaps unsurprisingly, then, optimism about the U.S. economy also ticked up in the latest survey, which tallied responses from 236 CPAs, CFOs and other finance leaders. Per the AICPA-CIMA survey, 39% of respondents said they were optimistic about the American economy, up from 28% in the fourth quarter.
Respondents also registered an increase in optimism about their own companies’ outlook, with 47% reporting optimism in this area, up from 41% in the prior quarter.
The survey also showed that more than half of respondents (55%) reported optimism about business expansion plans, marking a 7% quarter-over-quarter increase.
As for the biggest challenges facing businesses? Respondents cited “domestic economic conditions” as their top concern, followed by employee and benefits costs. Notably, inflation fell to the fifth biggest concern for respondents; in the prior quarter’s survey, it ranked second.
And though wide-scale layoffs at places like Block and elsewhere have made headlines, a third of respondents in the AICPA-CIMA survey said they have too few employees. Just about half (56%) said they have a sufficient number of employees.
In a statement, Tom Hood, the Association of International CPAs’ executive VP of business engagement and growth, said the survey showed a “renewed sense of optimism,” though he acknowledged the uncertainty of the moment. The survey was conducted Feb. 3-24, just before the United States and Israel launched ongoing attacks on Iran on Feb. 28.
“That said, we’re mindful that recent geopolitical developments could affect inflation trends, and we’re watching those dynamics closely. Even with this uncertainty, the steady rise in company outlooks and expansion plans shows that executives are positioning their businesses for growth. With disciplined planning and continued investment in talent and innovation, we believe there is real opportunity ahead to build resilience and outperform in the coming year.”
On the tariff front, 35% of respondents said they’re increasing prices as a result of the levies, and an equal share said they’re looking into different supply chain options. But, like wider geopolitical conditions, the continuation of the United States’ tariff regime is an open question after the U.S. Supreme Court ruled against them on Feb. 20. And, for what it’s worth, the Court of International Trade this week paved the way for shippers to seek refunds from the tariffs.
