CFOs are heading into 2026 expecting persistent pricing pressure and economic uncertainty, according to the latest CFO Survey from Duke University’s Fuqua School of Business and the Federal Reserve Banks of Richmond and Atlanta.
Tariffs remain the top concern among U.S. CFOs as trade policy continues to complicate pricing decisions and long-term planning. Although concern about tariffs eased slightly compared with the prior quarter, CFOs still ranked them above demand for products and services, labor quality and skills mismatch, monetary policy and even inflation. Overall, the responses suggest a cautious mindset, with finance leaders focused on managing risk amid a vastly uncertain economic backdrop.
Pricing pressure and growth expectations
CFOs continue to expect pricing pressure to carry into 2026. The median respondent anticipates prices for products and services will rise by 3.5% next year, signaling cost dynamics remain elevated. Rising costs are not a result of any individual issue, as CFOs appear to be factoring in a mix of tariffs, input and procurement costs and customer sensitivity when setting pricing plans.
John Graham, a finance professor at the Duke University Fuqua School of Business and the academic director of the survey, said the findings point to continued high price growth following earlier expectations that tariff-related pressure would extend into 2026. The data suggests CFOs are preparing for price increases as part of broader margin management strategies.
Findings related to human capital point to moderate labor expansion. The median company expects to increase full-time employment by 1.7% in 2026, consistent with recent survey results. At the same time, 15% of companies plan to reduce headcount, 26% expect employment to remain flat and 59% anticipate increasing their workforce. Wage growth is expected to average about 3%, indicating compensation pressure remains a factor even as hiring moderates and interest rates fall.
At the macro level, CFOs’ outlook has remained largely stable. Respondents expect real GDP growth of 1.9% in 2026, nearly unchanged from last quarter. Sentiment has softened modestly, though. The CFO optimism index for the overall economy declined to 60.2 from 62.9 (on a scale from 0 to 100), and the optimism of their own firm fell among large companies.
AI investment and execution priorities
AI investment is expected to expand further in 2026, particularly among smaller and mid-sized firms. Over three-quarters (78%) of large companies invested in AI during 2025, compared with less than half (48%) of small companies. That gap is projected to narrow sharply, with roughly 80% of small firms saying they plan to invest in AI next year.
Findings point to a mixed outlook for AI adoption, with CFOs expecting improvements in worker productivity, decision speed and accuracy, customer satisfaction and employees’ ability to focus on higher value tasks. CFOs are not anticipating significant changes to headcount or measurable cost savings from AI investment in 2026.
The survey points to three priorities shaping CFO plans for 2026: Managing ongoing pricing pressure tied to policy and cost dynamics, maintaining disciplined hiring and compensation strategies as growth moderates and expanding AI investment with a focus on productivity and execution rather than short-term cost reduction or ROI.
