Will there be an economic recession in 2026? Based on recent surveys of finance chiefs, it’s still anyone’s guess. In the fourth-quarter CNBC CFO Council survey, just over half of respondents (59%) said there won’t be a recession in the new year.
That largely mirrors another recent survey of financial leaders conducted by AICPA and CIMA, where just 52% of respondents said the United States has already entered one or will enter one by 2026’s end.
CNBC’s survey, overall, showed mixed sentiments among CFOs on the economy, inflation and President Donald Trump’s performance. For instance, the media outlet found that over half of respondents anticipate inflation to stay above the Federal Reserve Bank’s target all the way into 2027.
Conducted Dec. 1-8, the survey included responses from 22 finance chiefs who sit on the CNBC CFO Council, which itself is composed of dozens of CFOs across several industries.
Sixty-eight percent of respondents said they’re optimistic about the economy’s direction, while almost 5% said they’re “very optimistic” about it. And, of course, these days, no survey of financial executives would be complete without a question on the state of artificial intelligence. CNBC’s survey found that 68% of respondents are investing in the nascent technology, while 27% believe their companies are “underinvesting” in it.
The Federal Reserve Bank, which is expected to announce another interest rate cut on Wednesday, also figured into CNBC’s survey. Per the media outlet’s survey, respondents are expecting rate cuts by the Federal Reserve Bank in the year ahead, though they “do not expect an aggressive rate cut cycle.” Excluding the Fed’s anticipated December cut, CFOs predicted just one to two rate cuts through the middle of 2026.
When it comes to Fed leadership, 77% of finance chiefs surveyed by CNBC expressed doubt that a new chair would make the organization “more effective.”
And while 72% of respondents rated Trump’s performance as either “fair” or “poor,” many seemed content with Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent. Sixty-two percent called Bessent’s performance “good” or “excellent,” CNBC reported.
As for specific policy changes under the Trump administration, 20 respondents described the president’s trade policy as “poor,” and 14 said the same about his immigration policy. Still, seven CFO respondents described the Trump administration’s immigration policy as “excellent” or “good,” though nine said it was “poor.”
Meanwhile, CNBC’s survey detected increased fears about the state of the consumer among respondents. Forty-one percent of respondents said that consumer demand is the “biggest risk” to their business.
