The M&A market is sending conflicting messages as 2025 closes.
Deal value in the third quarter hit its highest level in almost four years, powered by a return of megadeals and stronger equity markets. Yet overall deal volume has barely moved. New early findings from Deloitte’s 2026 M&A Trends Survey show that dealmakers are optimistic about next year, but the sharp rise in large transactions and sluggish midmarket activity point to a split landscape that CFOs will need to plan around.
A surge in deal value without a rise in volume
U.S. deal value spiked in the third quarter as both corporate buyers and private equity firms returned to the market with larger checks in a high-inflation market. Announced deal value reached $598 billion, a 56% jump from the prior quarter and the highest level in almost four years.
Although the data does not break out which transactions were sponsor-led or strategic, private equity dealmakers made up a significant share of Deloitte’s respondents, and their rising confidence suggests they played an important role in the renewed momentum.
At the same time, overall deal volume remained flat across 2025. This created a two-market environment where large strategic and sponsor-backed deals accelerated while midmarket activity stayed sluggish. For CFOs looking at 2026, this gap could open opportunities to capture value in smaller and bolt-on transactions that have yet to see the same rebound as the megadeal tier.
Dealmakers expect more activity in 2026
Survey data shows clear optimism heading into next year. The majority (90%) of private equity respondents and corporate respondents (80%) expect to increase the number of deals they close in the next 12 months. A similar share expects the total value of their deals to rise.
Still, expectations have cooled compared to last year. Far fewer respondents expect a significant increase in deal volume, and most now anticipate more modest gains. The share choosing increased somewhat rose from 50% in last year’s survey to 67% this year. The shift signals that dealmakers expect activity to rise, but not at the pace seen during the sharp rebound in early 2024.
For CFOs, this means pipeline planning and valuation modeling should account for a competitive market that remains cautious. Buyers expect to be active, but they do not expect conditions to improve fast enough to remove risk from the equation.
Mixed macroeconomic signals
Deal confidence is rising against a backdrop of mixed economic indicators. Two Federal Reserve rate cuts in September and October helped strengthen financing conditions, and a potential third cut before the year’s end would add another tailwind.
Equity markets have also posted strong gains, with the S&P 500 up 15% and the Nasdaq up 18% through mid-November. Combined with a rebound in real GDP to 3.8% in the second quarter after a contraction early in the year, buyers entering 2026 have more cash flow support and stronger equity valuations to work with.
But now the Fed is in a conundrum to balance its dual mandate as inflation has climbed steadily in recent months and unemployment has increased. Continued tariff uncertainty also clouds pricing and supply chain visibility. These conditions may push CFOs to revisit hurdle rates, run more scenario tests and structure deals with added protections as they balance the favorable financing backdrop with rising macro risk.
Deloitte’s full 2026 M&A Trends report will publish in January, but the early preview suggests a year shaped by opportunity for well-prepared buyers and slower progress for others. For CFOs, the divide between the highly coveted megadeal momentum and flat midmarket activity will likely be the defining dynamic as 2026 kicks off.
