Confidence among executives at middle-market and small companies recovered somewhat in the second half of 2025 following a deep mid-year swoon, according to the latest look at business optimism by JPMorgan Chase.
While only 39% of the 2,471 leaders who participated in JPMorgan’s November survey said they held an optimistic view of the national economy, that was up from 32% last June. Still, confidence remained far below the multi-year high of 65% registered shortly after the 2024 presidential election.
Optimism about the global economy returned to the same level (28%) as at the start of 2025, aligning with the 15-year average of 26%.
Among both middle-market companies (those with annual revenue between $20 million and $500 million) and small companies (less than $20 million), expectations for their own fortunes were considerably rosier than their overall economic outlook.
For example, 71% of the midsize company executives said they were optimistic about their company’s prospects heading into 2026, up from 58% last June. And 73% projected increased revenue this year, compared with 50% six months earlier.
“There’s a real sense of momentum across the middle market as business leaders prepare to set ambitious growth plans in motion,” said Melissa Smith, co-head of commercial banking at J.P. Morgan, the banking arm of parent JPMorgan Chase.
That growth mindset is evident in many midsize companies’ plans for the new year, which include introducing new products or services (58% of those polled), expanding into new domestic or international markets (53%), pursuing strategic partnerships or investments (49%) and mergers/acquisitions (39%).
Confidence levels were similar among small companies, although they didn’t experience the midyear swoon that befell their middle-market counterparts.
Three-quarters of the small-company executives (74%) said they were optimistic about their company’s outlook for 2026, which held steady from 76% last June and 75% in late 2024. The same trend line held true for expectations of growth in both revenue and profits.
The level of concern over a possible looming recession remains significant, with barely half of the full survey base saying they don’t expect one to occur in 2026, while the rest said either that they do expect a recession, that we’re already in one or that they are unsure.
That outlook “may reflect the impact of 2025 rate cuts, which occurred in response to a cooling labor market,” JPMorgan wrote in its survey report. “Looking ahead, Federal Reserve leadership changes and policy directions will likely continue to shape business sentiment throughout 2026.”
Asked about the Trump Administration’s tariff regime, a solid majority (61%) of survey participants said they expect to see a moderate or significant negative impact in 2026. In fact, tariffs ranked third among companies’ largest expected challenges this year, after the uncertain economic conditions and revenue growth.
