The Trial Balance is CFO.com’s weekly preview of stories, stats and events to help you prepare.
Part 1 — How U.S. involvement in Venezuelan politics may impact CFOs
After years on the outskirts of global markets due to political and socioeconomic unrest, Venezuela reentered risk discussions this week as players in the oil and credit markets took stock of the U.S. capture of President Nicolás Maduro.
Long-defaulted government bonds jumped, while traders braced for complexity around sanctions, supply and regional stability. For CFOs, this adds another layer of geopolitical uncertainty to an already complicated environment.
Oil markets offered an early signal, though the response was limited. Prices showed little immediate movement, hinting at skepticism that Venezuelan supply would change in the near term. For CFOs managing fuel exposure, transportation costs or energy-linked contracts, even limited price movement over the coming days and weeks can ripple through forecasts that were built without this type of political risk in mind.
Credit markets were not far behind. Venezuela’s distressed sovereign bonds rose as investors priced in potential governance changes and restructuring scenarios. The repricing shows how quickly political developments can alter credit assumptions, particularly in emerging markets and resource-linked assets. For finance leaders overseeing treasury functions and banking relationships, whether directly or through delegation, the current situation stresses the value of keeping sovereign and counterparty risk on the finance team’s radar, even when exposure appears indirect.
Beyond Venezuela, the uncertainty surfaced inside the global financial system. On Monday, Bloomberg reported that Chinese regulators urged banks to disclose lending ties to the country. CFOs relying on syndicated credit facilities, supply chain financing or international banks may now face an additional risk factor and remain connected to those exposures through shared balance sheets and needed access to capital markets.
Questions around transparency further complicated the picture. Venezuela’s state oil company has not published audited financial statements in years, leaving its investors and creditors with limited financial visibility during a period of unprecedented political transition in the country. The absence of audited data complicates valuation, credit analysis and counterparty assessment for lenders, banks and finance teams assessing exposure tied to energy markets and sovereign risk.
All together, Venezuela’s sudden return to market relevance served as another reminder of how geopolitical risk continues to intersect with day-to-day financial decision-making regardless of size or industry. In a climate shaped by globalization and overlapping political and economic pressures, events well outside a company’s operating footprints can still produce ripples that influence forecasts, credit conditions and capital planning for finance teams across the global economy.
Part 2 — This week
Here’s a list of important market events slated for the week ahead.
Monday, Jan. 5
- ISM Manufacturing Index, Dec.
Tuesday, Jan. 6
Wednesday, Jan. 7
- ADP employment, Dec.
- ISM services index, Dec.
- Job openings, Nov.
- U.S. factory orders, Oct.
Thursday, Jan. 8
Friday, Jan. 9
- U.S. employment report, Dec.
- U.S. unemployment rate, Dec.
- U.S. hourly wages, Dec.
- University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment, Jan.
Part 3 — Weekly listen: Strategy CFO Andrew Kang on bitcoin liquidity and access
The Coin Stories podcast recently spoke with Andrew Kang, CFO of Strategy, the software company led by Michael Saylor and known for being the largest corporate holder of bitcoin. On the company’s balance sheet lies roughly 3% of the total bitcoin supply, currently worth tens of billions of dollars at recent market prices. Kang described bitcoin as “still an emerging technology” and “a volatile asset,” framing recent price action less as a bitcoin-specific issue and more as part of broader macro uncertainty.
The most practical section focused on index inclusion and liquidity. Kang pointed to trading volume as a core consideration for passive investors. “There was a period in time in the last couple years where we were the No. 1 traded U.S. equity,” he said, adding, “Today I think we’re still top 10.”
From his perspective, excluding the stock creates a mismatch between indexes and market activity. “How do you exclude a top 10 traded stock in liquidity and say, ‘Well, we’re just not going to include that in our index,’” Kang said, arguing that doing so would “exclude a major portion of investment demand that exists for passive investors.”
Kang also addressed how newer instruments are being evaluated by traditional market intermediaries. He described credit ratings as largely backward-looking and said Strategy’s decision to create a reserve was meant to show how dividends could be supported through volatility. “It’ll help us manage through volatility,” he said, and “help us manage through ups and downs in the bitcoin market.” The discussion reflected how finance leaders at companies with unusually large balance sheet exposures are working to fit those strategies into established capital markets frameworks.
