The Trial Balance is CFO.com’s weekly preview of stories, stats and events to help you prepare.
Part 1 — Elon Musk on labor market, deflation and future of work
In a wide-ranging conversation this week on the “WTF is” show with Nikhil Kamath, Tesla, X and SpaceX CEO Elon Musk offered a candid and blunt view of how artificial intelligence, labor markets, productivity and monetary systems will evolve over the next two decades.
Even if Musk is half right, his predictions point to a future defined by rapid deflation, talent scarcity at the highest levels and a fundamentally different relationship between work, capital and economic value. Here are some of the most interesting topics that were discussed.
Talent issue remedies. Musk argued that “there’s always a scarcity of talented people” and stated that American companies will struggle if H-1B pathways are narrowed. He acknowledged abuse of the program by some outsourcing firms but warned that shutting it down entirely “would actually be very bad.” His comments mirror concerns already echoing through corporate finance, but similar to other industries, some argue that the domestic talent pool is sufficient for these roles. Regardless, finance teams and CFOs feel the pressure here, as many continue to face shortages in technical skills even as AI adoption accelerates and regulators attempt to widen pipelines.
Redefinition of the labor market. Musk said the most likely outcome in the next 10 to 20 years is that “working will be optional.” He predicts a sharp increase in output as AI and robotics scale. “If you can think of it, you can have it,” he said. For finance leaders, this implies a world where productivity growth far outpaces the money supply. Musk, despite multiple warnings from finance and tax thought leaders of the onset of a melt-up, said AI would have the opposite effect and would cause deflation, adding that “you simply won’t be able to increase the money supply as fast as you can increase the output of goods and services.”
New conversations about currency, debt and deflation. With interest payments already larger than the country’s entire military budget, Musk said, “the only thing that can solve the debt situation is AI and robotics.” He predicts deflation once goods and services growth surpasses monetary expansion. That idea connects to his broader view that money itself will lose relevance. If AI can generate most products or services at near-zero marginal cost, Musk believes money “disappears as a concept.” In its place, he said energy becomes the fundamental currency.
For CFOs managing capital allocation, supply chain planning and long-term automation investments, Musk’s economic framing of the future is worth noting. He warns of tighter talent scarcity, faster productivity cycles and potential major deflation within three years. Whether his economic predictions come to fruition or not, the race for AI capability and the capital decisions behind it will continue to shape the decisions of CFOs for now.
Part 2 — This week
Here’s a list of important market events slated for the week ahead.
Monday, Dec. 1
Tuesday, Dec. 2 — None scheduled.
Wednesday, Dec. 3
- ADP employment, Nov.
- Import prices, Sept.
- Export prices, Sept.
- Industrial production, Sept.
- ISM Services, Nov.
Thursday, Dec. 4
Friday, Dec. 5
- Factory orders, Oct.
- University of Michigan consumer sentiment, Dec. prelim.
Part 3 — Weekly listen: BNP Paribas Fortis CFO Franciane Rays
Franciane Rays, CFO of Belgium’s largest bank, BNP Paribas Fortis, joined the De CFO Podcast to discuss how she leads finance at Belgium’s largest bank. Rays came up through audit at Arthur Andersen and EY before moving into finance roles at BNP Paribas. She called accepting the Brussels CFO job “the best decision I ever made in my career,” even though it required living apart from her family in Paris.
Rays said the CFO’s office only works when it operates close to the business with clear discipline. But for her team, she said profitability guides everything. “The most important financial indicator [for us] is return on equity,” she said, noting that new Basel rules forced the bank to hold more capital even though “we have never reached that level of risk,” which raised the cost of capital and tightened performance. She added that monthly forecasting is now a core muscle inside the finance function. “Every quarter we make a reforecast to make sure we keep on track,” she said, and the team immediately adjusts if performance starts to drift.
Technology spending is another major decision point: “64% of our clients use the app an average of 37 times a month,” she said, which has pushed the bank to invest heavily in digital systems and AI use cases. The challenge is balancing experimentation with discipline.
“We try and test a lot, but my role is to focus on what makes sense, what we are sure will make sense for the bank.” Long-term execution, she added, depends on culture as much as strategy. “Culture is the cement of the strategy, [and] we are stronger when we work together.”
