CFOs who are concerned about tariffs are preparing for significant price increases this year as worries around trade policy reach a record high, according to the latest quarterly CFO survey by Duke University and the Federal Reserve Banks of Richmond and Atlanta.
Forty percent of CFOs identified tariffs and trade policy as a top concern in the second quarter of 2025. That’s a post-pandemic record for that category, as that level of concern even surpasses figures seen during the height of the pandemic and U.S.-China trade tensions.
Finance chiefs who are either worried about tariffs or work with other tariff-worried executives are forecasting price increases of 6.6% and unit input cost growth of 6.6%, compared with just 3.2% and 3.9% respectively among those not worried about tariffs.
This may lead to issues and a lose-lose situation for tariff-concerned CFOs and organizations. If expected nominal revenue growth among concerned CFOs is indeed at 4.8% as survey data indicates, that figure lags behind the price increases. Thus, although tariff-weary organizations may be able to make more money per unit or service offered, they will essentially charge more while selling less and ultimately achieve negative real revenue growth.
This is a trend Atlanta Fed economist Brent Meyer identified in his official comments about the survey. “Perhaps the most striking facet of the outlook for those that report tariffs and trade policy as a pressing concern is that their nominal sales revenue expectations fail to outpace their price growth projections, which means their real revenue growth is expected to contract in 2025,” said Meyer.
It’s important to note that the majority of CFOs haven’t raised prices in response to tariffs. Just 41% of all CFOs said they’ve passed or plan to pass tariff-related cost increases on to customers, suggesting the impact of the Trump administration’s trade policies is still undetermined.
For CFOs who did not report that tariff concerns raised prices, their expected nominal sales revenue growth of 5.9% still outpaces their projected price increases of 3.2%, indicating real revenue growth for this group, rather than a contraction. Unsurprisingly, many of the CFOs who aren’t concerned, much like last quarter’s report, aren’t doing anything.
Deterioration of economic sentiment
Across the entire dataset, CFOs indicated they are growing more pessimistic about the broader economy, a much different tone than was set at the end of last year. Respondents cut their median real GDP growth forecast to 1.4%, down from 1.9% in Q1. The probability of economic contraction also rose. That figure came in at 15% in Q1, rising to 23% this time around.
Tariff-concerned CFOs again showed greater pessimism than their peers. Beyond macroeconomic indicators, the results show tariffs are already shaping finance’s decision-making process. Forty-one percent of CFOs said they have postponed, scaled down, indefinitely delayed or canceled investment plans during the first half of 2025 due to trade-related uncertainty.
The Q2 2025 CFO Survey from Duke University’s Fuqua School of Business and the Federal Reserve Banks of Richmond and Atlanta contains responses from approximately 465 U.S. firms. However, the exact number varies slightly by question.
For example, firm-level forecasts like revenue or cost growth include responses from 451 to 496 CFOs, while macroeconomic expectations such as GDP projections are based on answers from 465 CFOs. The survey was conducted between May 19 and June 6, 2025.
